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Tag: Inflation & Cost of Living

  • For most workers, wages are still failing to keep up with inflation

    The best news from the June quarter wage price index is that average wages rose 0.8% – the same as inflation. This means that after 11 consecutive quarters, real wages have finally stopped falling.

    That is the good news, but as Policy Director, Greg Jericho noted in his Guardian Australia column, for most workers real-wages kept falling. Only good wage growth in construction, mining, transport and warehousing, and the utility industries enabled the overall growth to be equal with inflation. For workers in all other industries, real wages kept falling.

    And for all workers, real wages in the past year have fallen sharply and are around 5.4% below where they were before the pandemic.

    These latest figures only serve to reinforce that wages are not driving inflation and there is no sign at all of a wages breakout. Indeed, annual wage growth fell in the June quarter to 3.6% from 3.7%.

    It highlights that we do not need unemployment to rise to 4.5% in order for inflation to get under the RBA’s 3% target ceiling. The current rate is more than consistent with long-term inflation of between 2% and 3%. Any further efforts to raise unemployment by increased interest rates would only hurt workers and households for no benefit.

    The post For most workers, wages are still failing to keep up with inflation appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Inflation is falling so let’s make sure we don’t let unemployment rise

    The latest quarterly CPI figures showed that inflation is falling dramatically and in line with that of other major economies such as the USA and Canada. This, Chief Economist, Greg Jericho writes means we have a prime opportunity to lock in the current level of low unemployment.

    Through the past year of the Reserve Bank raising interest rates, the main justification has been that the economy needs to be slowed in order to bring down demand pressures on inflation.

    What the latest figures reinforce however is that the major pressures have come from the supply side. Australia’s inflation is essentially following the same path as other nations. This is because inflation is slowing largely due to reduced world prices of commodities rather than any response to increasing interest rates.

    Indeed the largest driver of inflation in the June quarter was rental prices, which will have been in part due to investors raising their prices to deal with higher mortgage payments.

    In the past year, unemployment has remained at 3.5% while inflation has gone from 6.7% up to 8.4% and now down to 5.4% (using the monthly measures). The belief that we needed to raise unemployment to 4.5% in order to stop inflation from accelerating is a cruel approach that treats inflation in the wrong way.

    Fortunately, in spite of the RBA’s best efforts, unemployment has not yet risen. This presents Australia with a genuine chance to lock in historically low unemployment as the norm.

    Rather than pursuing higher unemployment in order to reduce inflation the RBA and the government should be pursuing policies that keep unemployment low while also reducing inflationary pressure. This can mean a price cap on essential items such as rents and energy, introducing windfall-profits taxes, and increased public housing investment to reduce housing price surges.

    Interest rates are not the only way to tackle inflation and in an environment where profits are been driven by supply-side issues and profits they are one of the worst ways.

    Full employment needs to be the target, not a mythical “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” that largely justifies higher unemployment and more ho0usyheold living in poverty.

    The post Inflation is falling so let’s make sure we don’t let unemployment rise appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • If the unemployment rises to 4.5% who is likely to lose their job?

    The next 12 months ahead look to be a time of rising wages, and rising unemployment. The Reserve Bank is trying to raise unemployment in order to prevent rising wages. It’s target of 4.5% will see around 130,000 to 150,000 more people unemployed than is currently the case.

    Labour market policy director, Greg Jericho, in his Guardian Australia column, examines which workers are likely to be the ones who will lose their jobs.

    In a bitterly ironic point, he notes that these are the same workers whom Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank Michele Bullock recently boasted were the ones who had gained the most from the strong employment growth of the past 18 months:

    people on lower incomes and with less education who have benefited the most from the strong labour market conditions

    More worrying is that the Reserve Bank’s own estimates suggest that the rises in unemployment over the next year will see Australia breach the “sahm Rule” of recession, in which the unemployment rate rises more than 05%pts in a year. Oddly however the RBA’s correspondence on the issue revealed in an FOI disclosure has them suggesting that for Australia the recession trigger is a 0.75% rise.

    Either way, history suggests that when unemployment rises in a year by the amount the RBA is estimating it usually keeps rising.

    The RBA’s own estimates show just how close to a recession the economy is set to go in the next year. It already looks likely to hit workers with low skills and low paid jobs, and if the RBA gets it wrong, it will quickly hit many more of society.

    The post If the unemployment rises to 4.5% who is likely to lose their job? appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Bolstered by a biased tax system, house prices keep rising

    Despite rising interest rates, the latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that Australia’s house prices rebounded in the March quarter of this year. Policy director Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column that since the beginning of the pandemic property prices around Australia have risen 26% while at the same time average household disposable income has increased just 8%.

    This disparity has massive consequences for affordability. Had for example the median property price in Sydney risen in line with household incomes since June 2020, instead of being $1.15m it would be $954,000 – a $196,000 difference.

    Underlying the strength of the market even in the face of rising interest rates is the fact that Australia’s tax system is biased towards property investors.

    The most recent taxation statistics covering 2020-21 showed for the first time the number of investors recording property net profits was greater than those recording a loss. Such a situation only occurred because of the record low interest rates at the time. We know that the past 12 months will have seen a large spike in the number of people negative gearing their properties and thus not surprisingly housing remains an attractive investment not in spite of rising interest rates, but because of rising interest rates.

    The post Bolstered by a biased tax system, house prices keep rising appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Blame Game on Inflation has Only Just Begun

    That’s because inflation never affects all prices and incomes evenly. Some prices shoot up, while others grow slowly or decline. Some incomes keep pace with rising prices (or even outpace them), while others lag far behind. Thus the impacts of inflation are always uneven. And this sparks economic and political controversy.

    This distributional conflict is readily visible in current Australian inflation. As prices took off after the lockdowns, corporate profits surged dramatically, reaching their highest share of GDP ever by 2022.

    Meanwhile, wages – which were historically weak even before the pandemic – lagged far behind. In the last two years, consumer prices rose 12.5% (and more for essentials, like food and energy). Average wages grew less than half as much – barely 6% – in the same time.

    That means the purchasing power of workers’ wages is falling. It’s the biggest and fastest real wage cut in postwar history – and record profits from those higher prices are the corollary of workers’ falling real incomes.

    Despite the fact that wages have lagged, not led, recent inflation, the powers-that-be are still targeting workers to bear the brunt of the anti-inflation effort. The Reserve Bank is now using high interest rates to cool off employment and slow wage growth.

    This inflation has produced clear winners, and clear losers. So it’s a myth to proclaim that inflation “hurts all Australians,” pretending we can all join together in a shared national effort to wrestle prices to the ground.

    Our Centre for Future Work published research showing just how lopsided the impacts of inflation have been in Australia. We analysed official national accounts data from the ABS, including income flows, output data, and changes in average economy-wide prices.

    From end-2019 (just before the pandemic) to September 2022 (latest data at the time), higher corporate unit profits accounted for 69% of excess inflation (over and above the RBA’s 2.5% target). Unit labour costs accounted for just 18%, and other stakeholders (including small business) the remainder.

    This confirmed that workers are the victims of inflation, not its cause, and raised big questions about the RBA’s determination to target wages (not profits) for tough anti-inflation medicine. Our findings sparked widespread interest and anger. So business peak bodies, and business-friendly commentators, have launched a steady stream of attacks against our report since its release in February.

    RBA and Treasury officials also disagree with our conclusions. They have not challenged our actual numbers: indeed, internal RBA memos replicated and confirmed our finding that wider corporate profit margins account for the lion’s share of higher prices since 2019.

    But despite this evidence, these officials deny soaring corporate profits are a concern in the anti-inflation battle. Profits grew most dramatically in the energy and mining industries, they say. This is certainly true – due in part to sky-high prices paid by Australians for petrol, gas, and other resource-intensive products. So we can’t magically exclude this super-profitable sector from our analysis of inflation, nor our plan for tackling it.

    They also claim profits outside of mining have not increased. This is false: non-mining profits have been less spectacular than resources, but profit margins have widened significantly, reinforcing inflation. Consumers are reminded of this every time they visit a supermarket, book an airline ticket, or try to rent an apartment.

    In sum, these arguments cannot deny that business has profited mightily from the current inflation – especially, but not solely, in energy and mining – while workers have suffered.

    A flip side of this class conflict over inflation was starkly visible last week, when the Fair Work Commission announced a 5.75% increase in Award wages. That doesn’t quite keep up with inflation, but it sure helps.

    Within minutes, the same corporate lobbyists so offended by our research, lined up to denounce the wage increase as inflationary. They want Australia’s lowest-paid workers, whose living standards have already declined, to sacrifice further. Little wonder business peak bodies hate ay public attention on their own record profits.

    The blame game over inflation will get more heated in the months ahead. Inflation is likely to ease, as many of the unique post-pandemic factors (supply chains, energy price shock, pent-up demand) that underpinned firms’ price increases gradually abate. But real wages have fallen – and workers, understandably, want to repair that damage.

    So workers will demand wage gains in excess of inflation. And by all rights, they deserve that. That need not cause further inflation, especially if record high profit margins come back to earth.

    Corporations, however, want to sustain their record profits as long as possible. They want to keep wages down, and the RBA seems determined to help. So buckle up: the great Aussie debate over inflation is just getting started.

    Jim Stanford is Economist and Director of the Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute, and the author of Profit-Price Spiral: The Truth About Australia’s Inflation.

    The post Blame Game on Inflation has Only Just Begun appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • The economy is slowing as households get smashed by yet more rate rises

    The March quarter saw Australia’s economy grow a rather pathetic 0.2% and fall 0.3% in per capita terms. As policy director Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column, the economy is slowing at a pace that normally would see the Reserve Bank thinking about cutting rates.

    And yet as poor as these figures are, worse is likely to come as the March quarter does not include the two most recent rate rises and only a small amount of the impact from the rate rises in February and March. Both the Treasury and the RBA estimate the Australian economy will go backwards on a per capita basis over the next year and these figures suggest their estimates are if anything too optimistic.

    Households are reducing their savings as wages fail to keep up with inflation. Over the past 2 quarters, household consumption grew at an annualised pace of just 1%. Whenever household consumption has grown that slow the economy has either been in a recession or teetered on the edge.

    And yet despite acknowledging there was uncertainty over household spending, the RBA on Tuesday decided to raise rates in order to essentially slow household spending.

    All they have done is once again hit households that already need a standing 8 count.

    The figures pleasingly showed that total wages are now growing solidly due to both increased employment and better wage growth. But this has not come at the expense of profits, indeed corporate profits in the March quarter rose 3.2% – faster than the 2% increase in unit labour costs. Real unit labour costs rose just 0.2% in the March quarter while real unit profit costs rose 1%.

    This again highlights that profits more than wages drive inflation, and raising rates to slow wage growth by raising unemployment is a poor monetary policy that only risks an unnecessary recession.

    The post The economy is slowing as households get smashed by yet more rate rises appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Fair Work: 5.75% Award Wage Boost will not cause Wage-Price Spiral

    Today’s 5.75% award wage increase is a necessary boost for the lowest paid workers but does not keep pace with inflation.

    The Fair Work Commission (FWC) has today explicitly said this increase “will consequently not cause or contribute to any ‘wage price spiral’”.

    Key Points:

    • Award wage increase of 5.75% is less than inflation, which is running at 7%. (This covers approx. 20% of workers)
    • FWC Commission have said explicitly this will not cause or contribute to a so-called ‘wage-price spiral’
    • FWC acknowledges the increase “will not maintain the real value of modern award minimum wages nor reverse the reduction in real value which has occurred”
    • Australia Institute research shows excess corporate profits, not wages, are the major driver of inflation
    • Fair Work Commission also increased the national minimum wage by 8.65% (this covers approx 0.7% of workers)

    “This is a necessary boost, but insufficient to keep the lowest paid workers ahead of inflation,” said Dr. Greg Jericho, Policy Director at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “It’s significant that the Fair Work Commission has explicitly said this will “not cause or contribute to any wage-price spiral”. At a time when companies are making record profits, our research shows profits, not wages, are the major driver of inflation.

    “The FWC notes it “will make only a modest contribution to total wages growth in 2023-24 and will consequently not cause or contribute to any wage-price spiral.

    “The FWC has made it clear the Reserve Bank can not blame low paid workers wages for driving inflation in the event they raise interest rates next week.”

    Excerpt from Fair Work Commission Decision:

    As the total wages of modern award-reliant workers constitute a limited proportion of the national wage bill, we are confident that the increase we have determined will make only a modest contribution to total wages growth in 2023-24 and will consequently not cause or contribute to any wage-price spiral.

    We acknowledge that this increase will not maintain the real value of modern award minimum wages nor reverse the reduction in real value which has occurred over recent years.

    The post Fair Work: 5.75% Award Wage Boost will not cause “Wage-Price Spiral” appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Profit-Price Spiral an Inconvenient Truth for Big Business: Economists

    New media reports today quoting former Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Chair Rod Sims have reaffirmed the findings of Australia Institute research showing excess profits from companies like Coles and Woolworths are significant contributors to inflation.

    Key Points:

    “That the business lobby has been unable to disprove a single number from our research is a testament to the careful, evidence-based nature of our work,” said Dr. Jim Stanford, Director of the Centre for Future Work and report author.

    “It’s notable that many of the voices now seeking to cast doubt on the evidence behind a profit-price spiral were silent during the prolonged rhetoric on the existence of a wage-price spiral.

    “The report ‘Profit-Price Spiral: the Truth Behind Australia’s Inflation’ contained new macroeconomic data confirming that increasing profit margins per unit of real output in Australia’s economy account for a strong majority (over two-thirds at that time, based on September quarter 2022 data) of above-target inflation since the outbreak of the COVID pandemic in early 2020. The data we presented on the surge in profits, coincident with rising inflation, is clear, sourced to ABS data, and has not been challenged.

    “The RBA’s internal correspondence about our report (released as part of a freedom of information request) in fact replicated and verified our finding that rising profit margins account for the bulk of increased nominal valuations in Australia, comparing end-2019 to late-2022.

    “Macroeconomic trends since then (including December quarter 2022 data released after our initial report) confirm that unit profit margins are still elevated.

    “Contrary to the view of some Australian commentators, numerous high-quality research reports from think tanks, universities, and even central banks in other countries have confirmed the importance of rising profit margins in explaining the acceleration of inflation since the COVID pandemic, using methodological approaches similar to our own statistical decomposition. We cited several of those complementary studies in our follow-up report, Profits and Inflation in Mining and Non-Mining Sectors, and other similar research has been published more recently.

    “The main thrust of the critical commentary on our report has not been to challenge its empirical findings on the rapid increase in profits, but rather to deny that any generalised increase in profitability has been the cause of the inflation. Some claim that the rise in profits has been limited to the mining sector, which somehow doesn’t ‘count’ – even though products produced by that sector (including petrol, gas, and other fossil fuels) have been a leading source of recent inflation.

    “Our subsequent research showed that profit margins have also increased (albeit less dramatically) in several non-mining sectors. Others claim that swollen profits are just a side-effect of inflation that was caused by other forces (usually including supposed excess wage growth or consumer disposable incomes). That debate over the direction of causation is rather moot: the undeniable reality is that profits are at all-time record levels in Australia, while workers’ real wages continue to decline.

    “Business peak bodies who argue for continued wage suppression desperately want to hide the reality that they have profited from the inflation that is causing a crisis in living standards. This explains their interest in trying to challenge our findings.

    “The Australia Institute stands by its research. Arguing about the dimensions, causes, and remedies of the inflation problem is a normal part of the national economic debate. We look forward to similar scrutiny being applied to those arguing that wages are driving inflation in Australia.”

    The post Profit-Price Spiral an Inconvenient Truth for Big Business: Economists appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Real wages falls and interest rates rises signal tough times for households

    The Australian economy – like all economies – is about people. And yet too often company profits are used as a judge of economic health. Throughout the pandemic and in the years since, company profits have soared while the real wages of workers has fallen. This situation is inherently unsustainable with an economy dependent upon household consumption. As policy director Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column, we are beginning to see households struggle to keep going.

    The Budget delivered this month by Treasurer Jim Chalmers revealed that the next financial year starting in little over a month is set to be one of the worst in the past 40 years. Household consumption is expected to rise just 1.5% – the 5th worst since 1985-86. Even worse if we account for an expected 1.7% rise in population this means in a per capita sense, real household spending is about to fall.

    And when household spending slows, so too does the entire economy.

    We have already see the beginnings of this with sharp slowing in the volume of retail spending being done, all while the amount of money we are spending rises. In effect we are paying more for less. This means the “nominal” figures in the retail trade data hides the weakness in the economy and the pain households are going through.

    With mortgage repayments rising nearly 80% in the past year, households are switching from spending in shops and on services that employ people, to paying off their loans – driving up the profits of banks ever more, but in doing so actually slowing the economy.

    The Reserve Bank is getting what it wanted – a slowing economy, less money being spent and rising unemployment. But with conditions only seen in recessions expected in the next year, the risk that this slowing will lead to the economy stopping completely is rising, and the Reserve Bank must not raise rates any further and be extremely mindful of the pain they have already caused to households struggling from the fastest increase in loan repayments in over 30 years at the same time as real wage fall faster than they have on record.

    The post Real wages falls and interest rates rises signal tough times for households and the economy appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Don’t worry about a budget surplus, worry about a slowing economy

    The Budget announced this week by Treasurer Jim Chalmers revealed a projected surplus in 2022-23 before returning to a deficit in the future years. In response many commentators and economists have suggested that the budget is therefore expansionary and will fuel inflation. But as policy director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column given the projected slowing economy, if anything the budget should be more expansionary.

    Most of the claims around the budget fueling inflation are based on the movement of the budget from surplus in 2022-23 to deficit in 2023-24. And usually, this would suggest that the government is stimulating the economy. But when we look at the actual figures within the budget, the overwhelming reason for the shift from surplus is due to parameter changes relating to oil, gas, coal and iron ore prices. The spending measures the government is proposing are hardly expansionary at all. Their direct impact on total household income is minimal, and the largest spending is on reducing medical and energy bills rather than directly giving households more money.

    When we look at the forecasts for public demand growth we see a level of expansion that is more akin to an austere budget than one attempting to stimulate the economy.

    But when we also look at the forecasts for economic growth over the next two years we see an economy slowing quite abruptly in a world that is teetering on a global recession. In the past, such weak forecasts for household spending and GDP growth would have seen governments spending more and lifting economic growth.

    This budget appropriately deals with the concerns of inflation by directly lowering the costs of energy and medical bills – it demonstrates that governments do have a role to play in lowering inflation and that it need not be done purely by the traditional view that the government must slow the economy. The economy is already projected to slow, and by this time next year the calls will likely be less about why the budget is not in surplus and more about what is the government doing to simulate the economy

    The post Don’t worry about a budget surplus, worry about a slowing economy appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.