My Blog

Tag: Employment & Unemployment

  • Educating for Care: ECEC Skills Shortages

    Building a stronger, more accessible, and high-quality ECEC system is not just a top-ranking social priority for several reasons:

    • The ECEC sector supports hundreds of thousands of jobs.
    • It directly creates billions of dollars of value-added in the Australian economy.
    • It generates further demand for other sectors – both upstream, in its own supply chain, and downstream in consumer goods and services industries that depend on the buying power of ECEC workers.
    • It facilitates work and production throughout the rest of Australia’s economy, by allowing parents to work – although that goal would be much better achieved if Australia had a more comprehensive, universal, and public ECEC system.
    • ECEC enhances the long-term potential of Australia’s economy, and all of society, by providing young children with high-quality education opportunities – that are proven to expand their lifetime learning, employment, and income outcomes, and enrich their families and communities.

    Australia’s current market-based system for ECEC funding and service provision is incapable of meeting the needs of parents, families, and the broader economy. A drift to the market-based provision of ECEC services has undermined public provision in Australia and diminished the quality of service and the conditions under which it is delivered.

    From this crisis-ridden starting point, the staff recruitment and retention challenge in ECEC will become much worse, if in fact Australia were to make a long-term commitment to expand ECEC provision to adequately meet the needs of working parents (and the entire economy).

    Much public debate over the viability of expanded ECEC, putting Australia on a par with other leading industrial nations, has focused on the fiscal dimensions of that undertaking: how would we pay for it?

    If Australia is going to expand its ECEC system in line with the needs of working parents and employers, increasing funding to the Nordic-level average for ECEC must be considered, and ramping up high-quality vocational education for ECEC workers must be an immediate and highest-order priority to meet the workforce needs of expanded ECEC coverage.

    A long-term commitment to improved funding and service delivery, ideally aimed at matching Nordic-level coverage and quality benchmarks, would require a larger, better-trained, better-supported, and better-compensated workforce. A pro-active strategy for sustainable workforce development should be developed and implemented with input from all stakeholders, including ECEC providers, unions, VET institutions (particularly TAFEs), and government.

    The best possible education and care to Australian preschool-aged children should also be provided by the most highly trained and experienced workers – employed in delivering a public or not-for-profit service, and well-trained in public vocational education delivered through the TAFEs.

    In this sense, developing a universal public ECEC system is a natural analogue to developing a universal public VET system: building a world-class public ECEC system, staffed with top-notch graduates from public TAFEs, provides a dual source of economic and social benefit.

    Meeting the goals of high-quality ECEC services thus means recognising that the full and proper funding of Australia’s state- and territory-based TAFE systems must be an essential component of post-pandemic economic reconstruction.

    An active industry policy for ECEC will set the direction for the de-marketisation of ECEC services, with higher levels of government funding facilitating a vastly expanded system of ECEC in Australia.

    A vital prerequisite in this effort is establishing a stable, professional, well-supported ECEC workforce, by providing extensive education and training of ECEC workers, and their entry to secure, well-paid career pathways. This can only be achieved by fully funding the training and development of a regular pipeline of trained ECEC workers, led first and foremost by greater investment in publicly funded, TAFE-delivered education and skills, new mandates for workforce qualifications and staffing levels, and health and wellbeing quality frameworks that neutralise cost-competitive approaches to delivering ECEC services.

    The post Educating for Care appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Free Undergraduate Education to Save Universities and Jobs: Report

    The next federal government can save universities, make undergraduate education free for all Australians and employ tens of thousands of staff securely by lifting the public spend on higher education to just one per cent of GDP, according to a landmark new report.

    The Australia Institute’s Centre For Future Work report shows, if the federal government brings its annual investment in higher education into line with the OECD average, we could fix the destruction inflicted by the COVID pandemic and make universities more accessible and affordable for all Australians.

    Following decades of funding cuts, government inaction and the pandemic, more than 40,000 jobs were lost in public tertiary education in the 12 months to May 2021, 35,000 of those at public universities.

    National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU) National President Dr Alison Barnes said “Higher education needs to be made a priority in this election. The future of hundreds of thousands of staff and millions of students depends on it.

    “The state of the sector now is deeply concerning. It is the consequence of the Morrison Government’s decision to exclude universities from JobKeeper, hike student fees, cut funding per student place, entrench casualisation and decimate curiosity-driven research funding.

    “Thousands of jobs have been lost at public universities and the staff who are left are being kept on casual or short-term contracts. Those staff can’t plan for their future and often have their pay stolen by money-hungry universities who have built their business models on wage theft and insecure work.

    “The next Australian Government could remove the financial barrier to higher education, employ more than 26,000 staff in secure full-time jobs, restore research funding, reduce the over-reliance on casual staff and establish a new higher education agency to improve governance.

    “Free undergraduate education would be transformative for current and future students who are now facing more expensive degrees, mounting student debt and even the threat of being kicked off HECS if they don’t pass their courses.”

    Australia Institute economist and the report’s author Eliza Littleton said “As devastating as the pandemic has been for Australia’s universities, the sector was being distorted and damaged by corporatisation, casualisation, and privatisation long before COVID arrived.

    “Australia needs an ambitious national vision for higher education that re-aligns the sector with its public service mission, and with the needs of students, staff, and wider society.

    “Australia can choose a future for higher education that facilitates a stronger economy, social mobility and enhanced democracy – all the while generating a source of high-quality careers for many thousands of Australians.”

    The report’s recommendations include:

    • Free undergraduate education for Australian students
    • Adequate public funding for universities
    • Fully-funded research
    • Measures to ensure secure employment
    • Improved higher education governance
    • Caps on vice-chancellor salaries; and
    • Transparency in data collection.

    The post Free Undergraduate Education to Save Universities and Jobs: Report appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • At the Crossroads: Post-COVID future of Australian universities

    The report analyses the current worrying state of Australia’s higher education sector based on current funding and policy trends, and provides an ambitious national vision for higher education that re-aligns the sector with its public service mission.

    At the Crossroads, authored by Eliza Littleton, identifies seven key policy initiatives including free higher education for domestic students, that if implemented, would put Australia’s public universities on a path toward full revitalisation.

    Key Findings:

    • Delivering free undergraduate education for domestic students, an expanded public research program, thousands of secure jobs, and a new national governance body for the sector would cost an estimated $6.9 billion per year in additional higher education funding. This funding would generate almost 27,000 additional jobs (FTE) in higher education through easing workload pressures, additional researching funding and staffing a new independent higher education agency.
    • Since 2013, Federal Government funding for higher education has declined in real terms by 2.6%, despite a 23% increase in student enrolments.
    • Federal Government funding as a percentage of university revenue has more than halved since the 1980s, declining from 80% in 1989 to only 33% in 2019. In Budget 2022-23, the government forecasts a cut to real university funding of 3.4% over the forward estimates.
    • Universities responded to the pandemic shock with dramatic job cuts. In the 12 months to May 2021, 40,000 jobs in public tertiary education were lost, with 88% of these losses estimated within public universities.
    • The Federal Government’s Job-Ready Graduates reforms result in a reduction in government spending on student learning of $1 billion per year, while student contributions increase $414 million per year.
    • In the face of COVID shocks, sustained international student fee intake combined with reduced teaching costs through online distance education and job cuts have primed universities for healthy surpluses this financial year. Despite that, universities are continuing with measures that further downsize and casualise their workforces,
    • Reduced government spending and university deregulation has led to teaching and learning crisis. Rampant casualisation, short-term contract use, excessive workloads, and wage theft characterise employment arrangements in Australia’s universities.

    The report recommends several measures to revitalise Australia’s public universities:

    • Free undergraduate education for domestic students
    • Adequate public funding for universities
    • Fully-funded research
    • Measures to provide secure employment
    • Improved higher education governance
    • Caps on vice-chancellor salaries; and
    • Transparency in data collection.

    The post At the Crossroads appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • We (still) need to talk about insecure work

    Taking this perspective to task in a piece for The New Daily, Jim Stanford and Mark Dean discuss how a much broader range of forms of insecure work face many workers in Australia today, with the issue not getting any better. This is not even a trend created by unavoidable conditions created by the pandemic; it has rather been a deliberate outcome of the federal government’s labour market policies. Simply pretending it isn’t an issue won’t make it go away; nor will it provide us with sustainable solutions to the precarious situation that will keep facing more and more workers until the problem of insecure work is adequately addressed

    The post We (still) need to talk about insecure work appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Sustainable Industrial Jobs in the Hunter (aluminium)

    The report, by Jim Stanford (the Centre’s Director) and Alia Armistead, looks in detail at the Tomago aluminium smelter in the Hunter region of NSW. It is Australia’s largest smelter, and is currently powered through electricity mostly sourced from coal-fired generation. The facility has pledged to move to renewable power sources by 2030 – and the new report confirms that this would underpin long-term industrial and economic benefits felt in all parts of the country.

    The report reviews the worrisome deindustrailisation of Australia’s foothold in the global aluminium industry. Australia’s exports of raw bauxite have grown rapidly, but value-added aluminium manufacturing (including smelting) has declined. This undermines employment, exports, and spin-off jobs.

    The study also reports results of macroeconomic simulations of the overall impacts of the Tomago facility on the national economy (including employment, incomes, GDP, and government revenue). These effects, because of the economic linkages between the smelter, its supply chain, and the consumer goods and services industries which depend on its continued existence, are very large. Our results indicate the Tomago facility ultimately supports:

    • Over $1.2 billion in national GDP per year, with production benefits experienced in all states (70% in NSW).
    • Household disposable incomes of almost $500 million.
    • Direct and indirect employment of over 6000 jobs: in the smelter, in its various suppliers, and in downstream consumer industries.
    • Incremental government revenues worth $465 million per year: two-thirds of which is captured by the Commonwealth, and $120 million by the NSW state government.

    The study makes several recommendations for supporting Tomago’s transition to renewable energy, and enhancing Australia’s value-added aluminium presence. These include:

    • A clear and sustained commitment to rapid roll-out of renewable energy sources: Government should assist and accelerate Tomago’s transition to renewable power with clear, powerful measures to support expanded renewable energy developments, appropriate capacities (including batteries and pumped hydro) for backing up variable renewable power supplies, and fiscal measures that acknowledge the contribution Tomago could make (through the scale of its renewable energy purchases, as well as its potential role in demand-response measures that stabilise the regional electricity grid) to support NSW’s transition to renewable energy.
    • Full-cycle financial support and public equity: Our simulations confirm a large fiscal payback to state and Commonwealth governments arising from the operation of the Tomago smelter, its supply chain, and the downstream consumer industries which depend on its continued operation. This gives both levels of government a major fiscal stake in Tomago’s continuing operation. For that reason, in addition to supporting the roll-out of renewable energy, both governments should negotiate other forms of fiscal support for future capital improvements (including those tied to developments of renewable energy supply for the smelter).
    • Leveraging public infrastructure and procurement: Considerable demand for aluminium products will be forthcoming in future years as a result of the unprecedented investments being made by governments at all levels in new physical infrastructure: ranging from transportation to utilities to public buildings. The business case for continued aluminium manufacturing in Australia can be incrementally strengthened with pro-active efforts on the part of government to ensure that these investments (which are ultimately paid for by Australian taxpayers) embody maximum Australian-made content in all building materials and inputs, including aluminium.
    • A value-added trade policy: Australia’s laissez faire approach to international trade has concentrated Australia’s exports in the extraction and export of unprocessed or barely processed non-renewable resources; this has been coincident with a severe decline in domestic manufacturing and value-added activity, and a precarious dependence on imports to meet most domestic manufacturing needs. A rethinking of Australian trade policy could help reverse this damaging deindustrialisation. This must include active interventions to limit the inflow (often at prices below cost of production) of aluminium products from other countries which are not making reciprocal purchases of value-added merchandise from us. Trade policy should actively discourage exports of unprocessed bauxite, and instead require at least preliminary processing (and better yet, smelting) of Australian bauxite in Australian facilities.

    The post Sustainable Industrial Jobs in the Hunter appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Record number of people working multiple jobs reveals the problems for workers

    The Centre for Future Work’s Greg Jericho has analysed the figures and found an abnormally large number of new jobs since the pandemic have been in secondary jobs.

    In the December quarter of 2021 a record 6.4% of employees were working multiple jobs

    This unfortunately is not a pandemic-led one-off but part of a now 6-7 year trend that finds workers who are facing fewer hours, more insecure work, and getting pay rises that barely keep up with the cost of living being forced to seek another job to pay the bills. 

    See Greg’s full commentary in The Guardian: “Rise in hours worked signals post-lockdown recovery, but more people have multiple jobs than ever“

    The post Record number of people working multiple jobs reveals the problems for workers appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Australia’s Lopsided Economic Recovery

    In the last three months of last year, households in NSW, Victoria and the ACT came out of lockdowns and spent money propelling almost all of the economy growth in the economy.

    But while households are providing all the growth, workers are missing out on the rewards. The share of GDP going to employees hit a record low in 2021 and as government stimulus begins to be withdrawn the picture is not as optimistic as the (erratic) quarterly growth figures might suggest.

    Please see Greg’s full commentary in The Guardian: “Don’t get too excited by Australia’s rebounding economy – it’s a distorted snapshot of the true picture.”

    The post Australia’s Lopsided Economic Recovery appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Digging Deeper Into Australia’s Unemployment Rate

    In his weekly column for The Guardian Australia, Centre for Future Work Policy Director Greg Jericho unpacks the numbers behind the current unemployment rate, and compares it to the situation in 1974 when unemployment was last below 4%.

    The column considers several factors contributing to the current unemployment rate, including:

    • The flattening of labour supply due to border closures during the pandemic.
    • Lower female labour force participation (especially in full-time work).
    • The general growth in part-time work, including for men.

    Please see Greg’s full column, “Australia’s 4% unemployment in isolation hides what’s really going on in the labour market,” in The Guardian Australia.

    The post Digging Deeper Into Australia’s Unemployment Rate appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Of 3’s, and Other Important Labour Market Numbers

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison set tongues wagging this week with a confident pledge that Australia’s unemployment rate could have “a 3 in front of it” this year. It’s a theme that will loom large in his campaign for reelection later this year.

    In this commentary, Centre for Future Work Director Jim Stanford considers whether a low unemployment rate is an accurate indicator of the state of the labour market — and whether, even if achieved, it would reignite wage growth and solve other problems holding back Australia’s labour market.

    The unemployment rate was 4.2% in December, so Mr Morrison’s prediction may not be as brave as might seem: it would only take a .3-point drop to achieve that magical ‘3’. The official unemployment rate often bounces by more than that (in either direction) in any given month, purely due to measurement errors or shifts in recorded labour force participation. So his prediction will likely come true. But is it the economic triumph that he and his political allies will claim?

    A lower unemployment rate is obviously better than a higher unemployment rate. But the unemployment rate itself has lost much of its value as an indicator of the state of the labour market. There are large pools of unutilised and underutilised labour in our economy that are not captured by the official unemployment measure.

    Equally important, assumptions that a historically low unemployment rate will automatically correct many of the labour market problems that Australia has experienced in recent years are misplaced. Problems like wage stagnation, falling real wages, income inequality and poverty (even among employed people), and the economic exclusion of sectors of society (such as indigenous and immigrant communities, and people with disability) all require more concerted and targeted actions to fix.

    Please see Jim’s full commentary: Of 3’s, and Other Important Labour Market Numbers.

    The post Of 3’s, and Other Important Labour Market Numbers appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory: Labour Market Implications of Australia’s Failed COVID Strategy

    The resulting surge in infections has been among the worst in the industrialised world (worse than the U.S. now, as shown in the following graph from Our World in Data). The implications of this massive outbreak for work, workers, production, and the economy have been as predictable as they are devastating. One-third or more of workers in the most-affected regions cannot attend work: because they contracted COVID, were exposed to it, or must care for others (like children barred from child care and soon, possibly, schools).

    Our Centre for Future Work team has been active in highlighting the risks of ‘letting it rip’, analysing the failures of isolation and income support programs, and reminding everyone that keeping workers healthy must be the first priority in keeping the economy healthy. Here is a selection of our recent interventions:

    New COVID Cases per Million (7-day rolling)

    • Our Director Jim Stanford reminded policy-makers in this commentary in The Conversation that human labour is the critical input to production at all stages of value-added and supply chains, and if policy-makers acknowledged the centrality of work to the economy they would not have made such destructive choices. The article was reposted by the ABC, the Sydney Morning Herald, and other platforms, and viewed over a half-million times.
    • Senior Economist Alison Pennington has exposed the flaws in government isolation and testing systems. For example, she highlighted the perverse incentives created by the NSW government’s punitive $1000 fine for failing to register a positive RAT test — never mind the governments’ failures to make tests available, and support workers (with necessary income benefits) to isolate. Her analysis was shared thousands of times, and featured in multiple news coverage (including News.com, The New Daily, and Yahoo Finance) of the flawed NSW policy.
    • Alison further detailed the flaws in changes to the Commonwealth government’s isolating support payments, in this commentary in The New Daily. By punitively excluding hundreds of thousands from isolation benefits, the policy will accelerate contagion and make supply chain problems even worse down the road.
    • Our experts have been featured in numerous other reports on the supply chain problems arising from the Omicron surge, including these reports on Channel 10, Today, The Age, ABC Online, and The Guardian.
    • Our Economist Dan Nahum linked the surge in Omicron contagion to the spread of insecure work arrangements in Australian workplaces. And the Centre’s previous work on how COVID has accentuated the dominance of casual and insecure work in Australia’s labour market shows that without urgent action to improve job quality, the labour market will be even more vulnerable to the inevitable future disruptions from this continuing crisis.

    Our team of experts will continue monitoring the dangerous labour market developments arising from Omicron, and flawed government responses to it. Please watch our site and follow our Twitter feed for regular updates.

    The post Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory: Labour Market Implications of Australia’s Failed COVID Strategy appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.