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  • Solid Foundations, Bright Future (NSW)

    New South Wales has one of the most prosperous and productive economies in Australia, with a diverse base of economic activity and strong labour market. However, years of austerity have hollowed out its public sector, creating one of the proportionally smallest state public sectors in the country in terms of both economic activity and employment.

    Despite the instrumental role the public sector played in navigating the state through the pandemic, weak wage growth and rising inflation have compounded the impacts of austerity, leading to significant reductions in public sector real wages. While the current government’s scrapping of the wage cap and implementation of public sector wage rises has undone some of this damage, most notably the October 2023 wage rises for public school teachers, more repair is needed.

    The NSW government has a strong fiscal position with which to manage these challenges. NSW maintains nearly the highest credit rating in the country and relies on revenue bases that are both diverse and stable. Additionally, there is considerable evidence that, if needed, several options are available to increase state government revenue. As the state economy weakens in response to high interest rates and declining real incomes, the state government has the responsibility to contribute to support the economy and broader society, through expansion of public services, repair of public sector wages, and support for the most vulnerable.

    The post Solid Foundations, Bright Future appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Submission: Digital Transformation of Workplaces

    Submission to inquiry on digital transformation and worker rights.

    Authors: Macdonald, Heap

    Download the full report.

  • Employee voice and new rights for workplace union delegates

    Some employers have actively placed barriers in the way of volunteer union delegates and paid officials. One study in the early 2000s found that 23% of delegates found management
    hostile, while 22% of delegates reported that management opposition to their role as a delegate had become more intense over the previous two years. Examples from various case studies, including court and industrial cases, illustrate some of the ways in which that minority of employers from workplaces with delegates expressed their hostility towards unionism and their opposition to delegates, including by placing barriers in the way of workplace union activists and delegates.

    The new regime of workplace delegates’ rights is very likely, overall, to increase the voice of employees, and thereby have positive consequences, over the long run, for pay and conditions, union membership, workplace cooperation, grievance resolution and productivity. However, the effects of new rights for paid union training leave depend very much on union responses, in particular on their subsequent reliance on classroom versus informal training and the ‘follow up’ of classroom education.

    The post Employee voice and new rights for workplace union delegates appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Minimum wage increase won’t cause inflation

    Research showing minimum wage rises do not drive inflation.

  • Budget 2024-25: Resists Austerity, Reduces Inflation

    Targeted cost of living measures will directly reduce inflation in some areas (like energy and rents), while helping working Australians deal with higher prices in others (including reworked State 3 tax cuts, and support for higher wages for ECEC and aged care workers). Unlike previous years, the budget is projecting real wage gains in coming years that are actually likely to materialise — however, the damage from recent real wage cuts will take several years to repair, and further support for strong wage growth will be required, from both fiscal policy and industrial laws. The budget also spelled out initial steps in the government’s Future Made in Australia strategy to build renewable energy and related manufacturing industries; these steps are welcome but need to be expanded, and accompanied by strong and consistent measures to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels.

    Our team of researchers at the Centre for Future Work has parsed the budget, focusing on its impacts on work, wages, and labour markets. Please read our full briefing report.

    The post Budget 2024-25: Resists Austerity, Reduces Inflation, Targets Wage Gains appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Why Australian wages are stuck

    Analysis of the structural factors keeping Australian wages stagnant.

  • Increasing minimum wage would not drive inflation up: new report

    The analysis, The Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation, examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1997.

    It finds that, contrary to employer concerns, there is no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation in the modern Australian context.

    The report finds that a minimum wage rise of between five and 10 per cent in the Fair Work’s Annual Wage Review, due in June, is needed to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends, but would not significantly affect headline inflation.

    Key points:

    • Last year’s decision, which lifted the minimum wage by 8.65 per cent and other award wages by 5.75 per cent, offset some but not all of the effects of recent inflation on real earnings for low-wage workers.
    • At the same time, inflation fell by 3 full percentage points.
    • There has been no significant correlation between rises in the minimum wage and inflation since 1997.
    • Raising wages by 5 to 10 per cent this year would offset recent inflation and restore the pre-pandemic trend in real wages for award-covered workers.
    • Even if fully passed on by employers, higher award wages would have no significant impact on economy-wide prices.
    • A 10 per cent increase in award wages could be fully offset, with no impact on prices at all, by just a 2 per cent reduction in corporate profits – still leaving profits far above historical levels.

    “Australia’s lowest paid workers have been hardest hit by inflation since Covid. There is a moral imperative to restore quality of life for these Australians and this analysis shows that there is no credible economic reason to deny them,” Australia Institute and Centre for Future Work Chief Economist Greg Jericho said.

    “It’s vital the Fair Work Commission ensure that the minimum wage not only keeps up with inflation, but also grows gradually in real terms – as was the trend before the pandemic.

    “Whenever wages go up, the business lobby cries wolf, claiming it will cost people their jobs, shutter businesses and stifle competition.

    “The business lobby always has some reason that wages should be suppressed. But the historical data prove that concerns about inflation are not a credible excuse to deny low-paid workers a much-needed pay rise.

    “Even if businesses respond to minimum wage rises by charging consumers more, it would have a minuscule effect on inflation because it would be subsumed by much larger factors including chain disruptions, energy shocks, and corporate profits.”

    The post Increasing minimum wage would not drive inflation up: new report appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • The Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation (2024)

    The report, co-authored by Greg Jericho (Policy Director) and Jim Stanford (Director), finds that a minimum wage rise of between five and 10 per cent in the Fair Work’s Annual Wage Review, due in June, is needed to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends, but would not significantly affect headline inflation.

    Key findings of the report include:

    • Last year’s decision, which lifted the minimum wage by 8.65 per cent and other award wages by 5.75 per cent, offset some but not all of the effects of recent inflation on real earnings for low-wage workers.
    • At the same time, inflation fell by 3 full percentage points.
    • There has been no significant correlation between rises in the minimum wage and inflation since 1997.
    • Raising wages by 5 to 10 per cent this year would offset recent inflation and restore the pre-pandemic trend in real wages for award-covered workers.
    • Even if fully passed on by employers, higher award wages would have no significant impact on economy-wide prices.
    • A 10 per cent increase in award wages could be fully offset, with no impact on prices at all, by just a 2 per cent reduction in corporate profits – still leaving profits far above historical levels.

    “Australia’s lowest paid workers have been hardest hit by inflation since Covid. There is a moral imperative to restore quality of life for these Australians and this analysis shows that there is no credible economic reason to deny them,” Jericho said.

    “It’s vital the Fair Work Commission ensure that the minimum wage not only keeps up with inflation, but also grows gradually in real terms – as was the trend before the pandemic.

    The post The Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Fixing the work and care crisis means tackling insecure and unpredictable work

    The Fair Work Commission is examining how to reduce insecurity and unpredictability in part-time and casual work to help employees better balance work and care.

    The Commission is reviewing modern awards that set out terms and conditions of employment for many working Australians to consider how workplace relations settings in awards impact on work and care. This follows a 2023 finding by the Senate Select Committee Inquiry into Work and Care last year that there is a “work and care crisis”.

    The Select Committee’s final report noted “too many Australians are working in conditions that lack predictable hours and thus pay”, making it difficult to manage their care responsibilities with paid work.

    Insufficient income to meet family needs, inability to plan, inability to access suitable care, high stress levels and lack of time for life are some of the negative impacts of insecure and unpredictable part-time and casual work for workers with caring responsibilities.

    Women are overrepresented in part-time and casual jobs, as they continue to provide most unpaid care for children, elderly parents, and sick or disabled family members. Among women, casual employment is most common among 15 to 34 year-olds, while for men it is highest among those aged 65 years and older. Women’s casual employment is linked to child-rearing.

    Pay rates in casual jobs are often lower than for employees in equivalent permanent part-time and full-time jobs, despite casual loadings. Underemployment is also high and unpredictable working hours are common among casual and part-time employees, including in services sectors such as retail and care. In both sectors, insecure casual jobs provide workers with very little control over their work hours. Lack of control over hours is often a feature of permanent part-time jobs as well as casual jobs

    In a job with unpredictable hours it can be extremely difficult to organise and manage the costs of care. For example, for parents, uncertainty of working hours and income can make access to reliable and affordable childcare impossible. Unpredictable short-hours rosters can make it barely worth working at all as income may not cover the costs of formal childcare.

    Good quality, secure part-time jobs have long been regarded as essential for greater gender equality in employment, including as part-time jobs can support better sharing of care among men and women. However, the expansion of part-time work in the Australian economy since the 1980s has been an expansion of casual and part-time jobs that are highly insecure, often low-paid and with poorer conditions, protections and entitlements than most full-time jobs.

    It is possible to make casual and part-time jobs more secure and predictable. The Fair Work Commission’s analysis of industrial awards shows that there are many provisions in awards applying to part-time and casual employment that contribute to insecurity and lack of predictability. Award provisions include, for example, short minimum payments periods, broken shifts, poor guarantees around minimum and regular hours of work, little or no payment for travel time between different work locations, little or no notice of roster changes and poor compensation for being on-call.

    Secure work and a living wage are fundamental to good work and care arrangements. Secure work doesn’t just mean ongoing work or protection from unfair dismissal. Secure work entails adequate and predictable work hours, reasonable flexibility of working time, compensation for unsocial hours, safety at work and access to union representation.

    Worker-carers should also have rights to carer’s leave and personal leave, regardless of their employment arrangements. Systems of portable leave entitlements could help all workers manage care and work at all stages of their working lives. These and other leave entitlements would have the benefit of supporting a better sharing of care.

    The Fair Work Commission’s will complete its review in the middle of 2024. It is to be hoped that this leads to improved working conditions for worker carers, enabling men and women to care and work without paying the price through job insecurity.

    The post Fixing the work and care crisis means tackling insecure and unpredictable work appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Aged care wage rise decision crucial for elderly Australians

    The Commission today announced rises between 2 and 13.5 per cent for aged care workers from July 2024.

    “Today’s decision is crucial to supporting safe and quality care for elderly Australians, and the sustainability of the aged care workforce,” said Dr Fiona Macdonald, Policy Director at the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work.

    “For too long, aged care work has been undervalued and low paid. The Fair Work Commission’s decision to award additional pay rises, on top of an interim 15 per cent wage rise, is vital to fixing this.

    “The introduction of a new classification structure will also provide the basis for the ongoing recognition and valuation of aged care work.

    “It’s essential the federal government commits to fully funding the additional increases of up to 13.5 per cent from the start of the next financial year.”

    “The exclusion of indirect care workers from today’s decision is a lost opportunity to support the lowest paid workers.”

    The post Aged care wage rise decision crucial for elderly Australians appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.