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  • The curious incident of low wages growth

    A new Carmichael Centre report by David Peetz considers why wages growth has been so low, despite a tight labour market and a brief surge in inflation.

    Asking why has there been no wages explosion, Peetz finds the answer lies in loss of power.

    The report documents how workers have lost power in the past two decades, with almost every change in the economy taking away workers’ bargaining power.

    From 2014 to 2022 most government policies took away workers’ bargaining power. The most recent industrial relations reforms in 2022-2024 shifted the pendulum back some way towards workers. These laws increased workers power and have also boosted wages growth.

    The analysis shows that all workers have had their wages damaged by lack of power. And all workers have been able to recover some ground since the recent industrial relations laws have come into effect.

    • Australian workers can no longer obtain the wage increases that they previously could from wage negotiations. Workers do not contribute to inflation.
    • Changes in power have combined to normalise low wages growth, for both union and non-union workers, even in tight labour markets. Of 16 developments in the labour market and economy over the past 50 years, 14 signalled deterioration in worker power, one an improvement in power for female workers only, and one an improvement only from 2010 until 2023 (lower unemployment).
    • The one countervailing force in recent times has been public policy which, since 2022, has led to some increases in workers’ power. Analysis of 34 policy events showed that the majority of those before 2022 further reduced workers’ bargaining power, while almost all of those since then have increased workers’ power.
    • In March 2014 wages were 53.0% of national income, but by December 2022 they had fallen to just 50.3%, before recovering to 53.5% by September 2024.
    • Wages grew at a little over 2% per year through most of the period from 2013-14. After September 2022, they grew more quickly, to over 4% per annum throughout 2023-24.
    • The wage gains associated with increased worker power are not just restricted to unionists, but they are likely greater for unionists than non-unionists.

    The post The curious incident of low wages growth appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Working from Home, Not a Problem

    More than one in three workers in Australia usually work from home at least some of the week. Working from home has become an established working arrangement for many employees in jobs where it is possible to work remotely. Yet, there is strong opposition from some employers to working from home and regular reports of pressure from organisations to wind back this work arrangement.

    During the lead up to the 2025 federal election we have heard a lot about working from home arrangements as the Coalition adopted a policy for all Commonwealth public servants to work from the office five days a week. The policy has been abandoned but it is not clear that the Coalition have changed their views on this flexible work option, having said it created inefficiencies, has harmed productivity and is much more common in the public than in the private sector. But is there any evidence supporting these views?

    In this briefing paper we review the evidence on working from home, addressing the questions: Who works from home and why? Who benefits from working from home arrangements? Why do some employers (and politicians) want workers back in the office? What is the future for work from home arrangements?

    We find working from home is a flexible work option that has benefits for workers and for organisations, and it contributes to more inclusive and gender-equal workforce participation and a more productive economy. Working from home arrangements may require some workplace adaptation including requiring managers to work differently. However these challenges should not get in the way of the many benefits that working from home and other flexible work arrangements offer.

    The post Working from Home, Not a Problem appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • The Continuing Irrelevance of Minimum Wages to Future Inflation

    Updated analysis by the Centre for Future Work at The Australia Institute reveals that a fair and appropriate increase to the minimum wage, and accompanying increases to award rates, would not have a significant effect on inflation.

    The analysis examines the correlation between minimum wage increases and inflation going back to 1990, and finds no consistent link between minimum wage increases and inflation.

    It also reveals that such an increase to award wages could be met with only a small reduction in profit margins.

    The report, authored by Greg Jericho, based on previous work by both he and Jim Stanford, finds that an increase to the National Minimum Wage and award wages of between 5.8% and 9.2% in the Fair Work Commissions’ Annual Wage Review, due in June, is required to restore the real buying power of low-paid workers to pre-pandemic trends.

    The report also finds that this would not significantly affect headline inflation.

    Key findings of the report include:

    • Last year’s decision, which lifted the minimum wage and award wages by 3.75 per cent, offset the inflation of the previous year but still left those on Modern Awards with real earnings below what they were in 2020.
    • By June this year, the real value of Modern Award wages will be almost 4 per cent below what they were in September 2020.
    • Despite increases in the minimum wage over the past 2 years above inflation, inflation fell by a combined 4.5 percentage points.
    • There has been no significant correlation between rises in the minimum wage and inflation since 1990.
    • Raising wages by 5.8 to 9.2 percent this year would offset recent inflation and restore real wages for award-covered workers to the pre-pandemic trend.
    • Even if fully passed on by employers, higher award wages would have no significant impact on economy-wide prices.
    • A 9.2 per cent increase in award wages could be fully offset, with no impact on prices at all, by a 1.8 per cent reduction in corporate profits – still leaving profits far above historical levels.

    “Australia’s lowest paid workers have been hardest hit by inflation over the past 3 years,” said Greg Jericho, Chief Economist at The Australia Institute’s Center for Future Work.

    “The price rises of necessities always hurt those on low incomes harder than those on average and high incomes.

    “This analysis shows there is no credible economic reason to deny them a decent pay raise above inflation.

    “It’s vital the Fair Work Commission ensure that the minimum wage not only keeps up with inflation but also returns the value to the real trend of before the pandemic.”

    The post The continuing irrelevance of minimum wages to future inflation appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Budget briefing paper 2025-2026

    The Centre for Future Work’s research team has analysed the Commonwealth Government’s budget.

    As expected with a Federal election looming, the budget is not a horror one of austerity. However, the 2025-2026 budget is characterised by the absence of any significant initiatives. There is very little in this budget that is new other than the surprise tax cuts, which are welcome given they benefit mostly those on low-incomes. There are continuing investments in some key areas supporting wages growth, where it is sorely needed, and rebuilding important areas of public good. However, there remains much that needs to be done in the next parliament.

    This briefing paper reviews some of the main features of the budget, focusing on those aspects targeting and impacting on workers, working lives and labour markets.

    The establishment of a $1 billion Green Iron Investment Fund to provide capital grants to green iron projects is a significant investment. With $500 million of this fund going to the troubled Whyalla steelworks this investment should ensure ongoing integrity in the management of this vital industrial asset. We believe the government should take a significant ongoing stake in the ownership of the Whyalla steelworks. The $2 billion Green Aluminium Production Credit, to incentivise Australian aluminium smelters to switch to renewable electricity before 2036, is a necessary and welcome policy to assist the transition to a low emissions economy. Unfortunately, the credit is not available until 2028-2029.

    New and ongoing support for students in TAFE and in higher education are important cost-of-living measures while also making education and training more inclusive and accessible. There is some new funding for previously announced initiatives that support workers and wages growth and some funding for new wage increases in the female-dominated, and low-paid, aged care and early childhood education and care sectors; demonstrating the government’s commitment to addressing long-standing undervaluation of feminised care occupations. Continuing government support will be needed as the current Fair Work Commission review of awards to address undervaluation progresses.

    Other reforms in ECEC, along with previously announced changes to paid parental leave and carer payments, provide welcome, but belated, support for working parents and carers. It is disappointing to see that the opportunity has been missed to raise Job Seeker and Youth Allowances from their grossly inadequate levels.

    The post Budget briefing paper 2025-2026 appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Briefing Paper: Restoring public sector capability

    The Australian Public Service (APS) is responsible for delivering some of the most crucial social services to all Australians. The APS workforce includes employees who deliver frontline services like in Medicare and Centrelink, those who administer the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), and those who assist service personnel and veterans via Veterans Affairs. These are just some of the functions that APS employees undertake. Behind front line service delivery staff are employees who support these staff, work to coordinate and integrate services and provide policy and regulatory advice to government.

    This briefing paper examines the make-up of the APS and considers recent efforts to improve APS service delivery. We conclude that recent investment in the employment of more APS employees has improved service delivery and that any reduction in APS employees will reduce service delivery or result in the engagement of more consultants and contractors.

    In this paper we debunk several of the myths promoted in the political debate around the size of Australia’s public service. One such myth is that Australia’s public service is “bloated” or “inefficient”. The research also found that despite claims to the contrary, most of the public service jobs created since 2022 were not based in Canberra.

    The post Briefing Paper: Restoring public sector capability through investment in public service employees appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Climate crisis escalates cost-of-living pressures

    The report identifies three key areas where the climate crisis is directly driving up costs for Australians: insurance, food, and energy.

    These sectors combined have accounted for over a fifth of the consumer price inflation experienced in Australia since 2022.

    Key findings:

    • Insurance premiums have soared due to an increase in natural disasters, with some households now spending over seven weeks of gross income just to cover home insurance
    • Food prices have risen by 20% since 2020, with climate-related disruptions wiping out harvests and making it harder for some regions to grow food
    • Energy costs remain high due to a reliance on fossil fuels, underinvestment in renewables, and fossil fuel exports forcing Australians to compete with the global market for Australia’s resources
    • The impacts of the climate crisis are disproportionately affecting lower-income and regional households, who are already feeling the financial strain more severely

    The report underscores the need for urgent climate action to protect Australian households from these escalating costs. Addressing the root causes of climate change is essential to lowering future risks and alleviating the economic strain that millions of Australians are facing.

    “Insurance costs keep on rising and, while competition across big business sectors is needed, the thing that is driving insurance costs is climate change,” said Richard Dennis, Executive Director at The Australia Institute.

    “The only way to keep insurance costs down is to keep fossil fuel emissions down. The more we heat the climate, the more expensive storms, floods and fires will be and, in turn, the more insurance will cost. It’s time we started to tax the fossil fuel companies to fund the damage that their previous emissions are already causing.”

    As the world’s second-largest fossil fuel exporter and fifth largest producer, Australia’s actions are making a significant contribution to the problem.

    “The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters driven by climate change have resulted in higher payouts for insurance companies and rising premiums for homeowners,” said Mark Ogge, Principal Advisor at The Australia Institute.

    “One in 20 Australian households now spend more than seven weeks’ worth of gross income just to pay for home insurance and in many regional areas, where household incomes are lower, the burden is even heavier.

    “As climate change continues to fuel more frequent disasters, entire suburbs or towns could become uninsurable.

    “Food prices have also surged and in some regions growing certain crops is becoming harder and harder, making food insecurity worse, and even without price-gouging by retailers like Coles and Woolworths, prices are expected to keep rising due to the ongoing climate crisis.”

    “Meanwhile, Australia’s energy sector keeps using expensive fossil fuels and there is serious underinvestment in renewable energy solutions which provide far cheaper electricity

    “Exposure to global prices for fossil fuels due to coal and gas exports has driven up local electricity costs and even if Australia moves away from international pricing, the continued risk of climate disasters damaging critical infrastructure will ensure that energy prices remain high for the foreseeable future.”

    The post Climate crisis escalates cost-of-living pressures appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • The Limits of CGE Modelling

    Economic modelling is a central element of economic and policy debate in Australia. Yet the assumptions that underpin the most commonly used macroeconomic models are rarely discussed even though they fundamentally influence model results. Too often, models are used as a tool of persuasion rather than providing objective policy advice.

    The post The Limits of CGE Modelling appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Life Savers Without Life Savings (firefighters & paramedics)

    Firefighters and paramedics save lives, protect us from the ravages of fire, and ensure the sick and injured receive the medical treatment they need. However, after a working life protecting others, these emergency workers face substantial risk of having inadequate retirement incomes.

    Firefighters and paramedics are regularly compelled to retire early due to particular barriers to working beyond the age of 60. Workers in these intense and challenging roles should have access to early retirement options. However, early retirement means fewer years for superannuation to grow and more years in retirement drawing on superannuation.

    The possibility of superannuation running out is significant even under relatively optimistic assumptions.

    This paper provides simulations of retirement income trajectories for firefighters and paramedics under a range of assumptions. For firefighters, these show, under relatively optimistic assumptions, an early-retiring single firefighter can expect their superannuation to run out six years before male life expectancy, nine years before female life expectancy, and 15 years earlier than for a regular retiree (retiring at 67). Under alternative scenarios, incorporating plausible risks, an early-retiring firefighter can expect their superannuation to run out 15 or more years before life expectancy.

    For paramedics, the challenges are similar and severe. Our simulations indicate that, even under optimistic assumptions, an early-retiring single paramedic can expect their superannuation to run out seven years before male life expectancy, ten years before female life expectancy, and 14 years earlier than for a regular retiree. Considering plausible risks, an early-retiring paramedic’s superannuation could run out 15 or more years before life expectancy.

    To extend superannuation longevity through to the age of their expected lifespan an early-retiring firefighter or paramedic would need to reduce their annual living expenses by 18.5%.

    Given the challenges of continuing their work in these intense roles past age 60, it is unacceptable that retired firefighters and paramedics should have either significantly reduced living standards or risk running out of superannuation in retirement.

    Among the range of potential policy responses considered in this paper, one response with promise is to increase employer superannuation contributions for emergency responders and supplement this with a one-time special superannuation contribution for workers already approaching retirement.

    The post Life Savers Without Life Savings appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

  • Submission on Restricting NDAs in Workplace Sexual Harassment

    Submission calling for restrictions on non-disclosure agreements in harassment cases.

    Authors: Heap, Peetz

    Download the full report.

  • Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint (SA)

    New report contrasts South Australia’s economic progress with continued public sector wage restraint

    By many measures, South Australia has enjoyed the strongest economy of any state in Australia. Its economic growth has been faster in recent years than any state – and in per capita terms, its prosperity has improved twice as fast as the national average. It enjoys a stable, diversified economic base: reflecting a virtuous combination of strong business investment, exports, household consumption, and government spending (both on current services and on capital investment). The state’s labour market has been operating at or near record-low levels of unemployment and underutilization.

    Unfortunately, this economic progress has not been reflected in improvements in state-funded public services in South Australia. The proportionate share of the economy contributed by state-funded services and infrastructure investments has been declining since before the pandemic (and is now lower as a share of the state’s economy than any other state). State public sector workers have borne the burnt of this restraint: their wages have lagged far behind inflation, resulting in a painful real wage cut for state employees.

    In a new research report, Economist Jack Thrower shows that real wages for state public servants in South Australia have declined by as much as 10% since 2019. This represents a one-tenth reduction in the real purchasing power of their salaries, imposing severe financial stress on tens of thousands of households – and undermining consumer spending and economic growth.

    The report also confirms that South Australia possesses abundant fiscal capacity to repair this damage to real compensation for public sector workers. The state government’s core revenues are growing much faster than core expenses, and the budget is projected to return to surplus this year – faster than any other state other than Western Australia. Rebuilding public servant wages to catch up to past inflation should be a vital priority for the state government.

    Please read the full report, Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint: Unpacking South Australia’s Economic and Fiscal Advantages in the Shadow of Public Sector Pay Erosion, by Jack Thrower.

    The post Economic Prosperity, Public Sector Restraint appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.