Author: Greg Jericho

The election campaign needs to tackle climate change

And yet, as policy director Greg Jericho notes in his column in Guardian Australia, the issue has been virtually ignored in the election campaign thus far – with most focus being on the “costs” of reducing emissions rather than a focus on the need to do so, or that the cost of renewable energy has fallen so far that “maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems”.

There need to be a focus on the jobs in a low-emissions economy rather than a belief that Australia can keep avoiding the reality of climate change.

The post The election campaign needs to tackle climate change appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

April 21, 2022
The election campaign needs to be more than a quiz show

Labour market and fiscal policy director, Greg Jericho writes in his Guardian Australia column that the recovery from the depths of the pandemic has overwhelmingly been on the backs of casual workers. It also has seen a large increase in the gap between people on JobSeeker and the number of unemployed. The rise of low paying, insecure work that has helped bolster the employment figures has also meant people who are working but still earning less than enough to keep out of poverty is remaining high.

The post The election campaign needs to be more than a quiz show appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

April 14, 2022
House prices means interest rates do not need to rise much to inflict great costs

But while that may have been a neutral rate in the past, the Centre’s Fiscal and Labour Market Policy Director Greg Jericho, notes in his column in Guardian Australia, recent surges in house prices means such a rise would place an extreme burdon on mortgage payers – one not conducive to an economy still in recovery.

It took nearly 6 years during the mining boom for the RBA to raise the cash rate by 300 basis points; currently the market anticipates the same rise occurring in 17 months.

That would massively limit economic growth for little purpose at a time when wage rises remains below inflation, and rather unlikely to occur given the Reserve Bank’s recent hesitancy to slow the economy until real wage again start rising.

The post House prices means interest rates do not need to rise much to inflict great costs appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

April 7, 2022
A slap-dash budget revealing a government with no idea why it is in power

But as Fiscal and Labour Market Policy Director, Greg Jericho notes in his Guardian Australia column, the slap-dash and short-term nature of the measures reveals this government has lost any real reason for governing.

From the extra bonus of the low-middle income tax offset with no taper, which is now being used by businesses to argue against raising the minimum wage and the relative lack of concern about those in poverty while trying to exist on JobSeeker, this budget has all the hallmarks of an effort made up at the last minute and where poll numbers were more important than any economic figures.

The post A slap-dash budget revealing a government with no idea why it is in power appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 31, 2022
A short-term budget with no vision or coherency

With the opportunity to use windfall gains in revenue to begin the fix of structural issues in the economy dealing with the low paid and essential services, the government instead has thrown money at voters in the hopes of re-election.

The Centre’s Fiscal Director, Greg Jericho, goes through the budget numbers and finds that despite predictions of once again strong wage growth, the underlying assumptions are overly optimistic and would even still leave workers worse off than they were in the middle of 2019 until 2025.

The budget forecasts are for strong growth now, while the money is being pumped out, but once that ends we find yourself back with the same middling growth we had prior to the pandemic.

The post A short-term budget with no vision or coherency appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 30, 2022
In next week’s budget watch out for the tax cut that won’t cut your tax

And while there will be the usual attempts to suggest better wages growth is just around the corner and those on low-to-middle income earners are benefitting the most, we should watch out for the almost guaranteed spin around tax cuts.

The Centre’s Fiscal Policy director, Greg Jericho, notes in his Guardian Australia column that the low-to-middle income tax offset (LMITO) was meant to be discarded when the Stage 2 tax cuts were introduced. However because doing so would have delivered no net benefit to people earning below $90,000 the government extended the offset in the 2020 budget.

It extended the offset again last year claiming it was providing tax relief to “10 million low-and-middle income earners” despite it actually doing nothing other than keeping the tax rate of those workers at the same level.

We can expect the same to occur next week.

Budget spin is always a sight to behold, but we are now at the point where income earners are being told they are getting a tax cut that does not actually see them pay any less tax.

Meanwhile the Stage 3 tax cut that will deliver a cut of up to 4.5% for those earning $200,000 remains in place.

Spin and imaginary tax cuts for some; truly excessive tax cuts for others.

The post In next week’s budget watch out for the tax cut that won’t cut your tax appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 24, 2022
Flat wages and booming house prices cause housing affordability to plunge

A decade ago the medium-priced house in Sydney was equivalent to 5.8 times the annual income of a median household; now it is 10.8 times that income.

Greg Jericho examines the issue in his column in Guardian Australia and drills down to look at the affordability of housing across the nation and finds a shocking, yet unsurprising tale – and one that deserves a much greater focus in the coming election campaign than is currently the case

https://www.datawrapper.de/_/GmaeJ/

The post Flat wages and booming house prices cause housing affordability to plunge appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 17, 2022
Record number of people working multiple jobs reveals the problems for workers

The Centre for Future Work’s Greg Jericho has analysed the figures and found an abnormally large number of new jobs since the pandemic have been in secondary jobs.

In the December quarter of 2021 a record 6.4% of employees were working multiple jobs

This unfortunately is not a pandemic-led one-off but part of a now 6-7 year trend that finds workers who are facing fewer hours, more insecure work, and getting pay rises that barely keep up with the cost of living being forced to seek another job to pay the bills.

See Greg’s full commentary in The Guardian: “Rise in hours worked signals post-lockdown recovery, but more people have multiple jobs than ever“

The post Record number of people working multiple jobs reveals the problems for workers appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 10, 2022
Australia’s Lopsided Economic Recovery

In the last three months of last year, households in NSW, Victoria and the ACT came out of lockdowns and spent money propelling almost all of the economy growth in the economy.

But while households are providing all the growth, workers are missing out on the rewards. The share of GDP going to employees hit a record low in 2021 and as government stimulus begins to be withdrawn the picture is not as optimistic as the (erratic) quarterly growth figures might suggest.

Please see Greg’s full commentary in The Guardian: “Don’t get too excited by Australia’s rebounding economy – it’s a distorted snapshot of the true picture.”

The post Australia’s Lopsided Economic Recovery appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

March 3, 2022
Loss of Bargaining Power Explains Wage Stagnation

Our Policy Director Greg Jericho writes in Guardian Australia that claims of a “wages breakout” remain purely a scare campaign from employer groups determined to keep wages low. He finds that once again real wages are failing to keep pace with productivity and that as a result no pressure on inflation is coming from wage claims, but instead workers are missing out. With levels of unemployment now associated with much lower wage growth than in the past, it is clear the power imbalance in wage negotiations has shifted drastically away from workers.

The post Loss of Bargaining Power Explains Wage Stagnation appeared first on The Australia Institute's Centre for Future Work.

February 24, 2022